जी हाँ , हैदराबाद के मशहूर वैज्ञानिक इसका जवाब हाँ में दे रहे हैं। उनके दावे के मुताबिक कोरोना की तीसरी लहर बीती 4 जुलाई को ही आ गयी है। पिछले पंद्रह महीनो से संक्रमण के आंकड़ों और डेथ रेट का विश्लेषण कर रहे मशहूर भौतिक विज्ञानी डॉक्टर विपिन श्रीवास्तव के अनुसार देश में तीसरी लहार ने अपने पावन पसार लिए हैं।
वहीँ कोरोना की तीसरी लहर को लेकर डॉक्टरों के संघठन इंडियन मेडिकल एसोसिएशन ने सख्त चेतावनी जारी की है. आईएमए का कहना है की कोरोना की तीसरी लहर निश्चित है इसलिए राज्य सरकारों को निश्चिंत नहीं होना चाहिए। आईएमए के एक बयान के अनुसार – ‘महामारी के इतिहास को देखते हुए कोरोना की तीसरी लहर निश्चित है और इसे रोका नहीं जा सकता है।’
हैदराबाद यूनिवर्सिटी के प्रो -वाइस-चांसलर रहे श्रीवास्तव बताते हैं कि 4 जुलाई से कोरोना संक्रमण के नए मामले और मौतें इशारा करती हैं कि देश में तीसरी लहर आ चुकी है। यह ट्रेंड फरवरी 2021 के पहले हफ्ते जैसा है। तब देश में कोरोना की दूसरी लहर ने दस्तक दी थी और यह अप्रैल में चरम पर पहुंच गई थी।
विपिन श्रीवास्तव ने चेताया है कि अगर लोगों ने कोरोना प्रोटोकॉल का पालन नहीं किया तो तीसरी लहर जल्द ही रफ्तार पकड़ सकती है। तीसरी लहर को काबू में रखने के लिए लोगों को सोशल डिस्टेंसिंग, सैनिटाइजेशन, मास्क पहने और वैक्सीनेशन जैसे प्रोटोकॉल का हर हाल में पालन करना होगा।
कोविड के बढ़ने और घटने के मेट्रिक्स को कैलकुलेट करने के लिए श्रीवास्तव ने 24 घंटों में कोरोना से मौतों और उसी अवधि में नए एक्टिव केस का अनुपात लिया। नए केस के मुकाबले ठीक होने वालों की संख्या ज्यादा रहने पर यह अनुपात निगेटिव रहता है। अनुकूल स्थिति तब आती है जब डेली डेथ लोड कम या नेगेटिव होता है।
कोरोना से हुई मौतों के 461 दिनों के आंकड़ों के विश्लेषण के आधार पर डॉ श्रीवास्तव ने तीन मेट्रिक्स तैयार किए हैं। इनमें से एक मेट्रिक्स से संकेत मिलता है कि कोरोना की तीसरी लहर 4 जुलाई को ही आ चुकी है। उन्होंने इस मेट्रिक्स का कोविड-19 के ‘डेली डेथ लोड (डीडीएल)’ नाम दिया है। उन्होंने हर 24 घंटे में डीडीएल को कैलकुलेट किया है।
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